Water GenbuTier 2
at DTR Massachusetts Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.1% | -8.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clockwork Musicbox | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Triskit, Guidance Angel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |